A turning point within this century
The UN's 2024 population assessment starts at 8.2 billion people. It projects growth to about 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, followed by a small decline to 10.2 billion in 2100.
That is a change in direction, not a sudden emptying of the planet. In this projection, the end-of-century population remains about two billion larger than the 2024 estimate.
A projection can change
The UN put the probability of a population peak this century at 80%, compared with about 30% in its 2013 assessment. Lower-than-expected fertility helped bring the projected peak forward.
These are conditional demographic projections. Future fertility, mortality and migration can change the path. The chart shows three rounded reference points; it does not describe every year between them.
